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Link: Is second high-speed rail vote on the horizon?» Ventura County Star
Is second high-speed rail vote on the horizon?Central Japan Railway Aims Bullet Train at the U.S. - WSJ.com
* Posted January 25, 2010 at 9:22 p.m.
It would not be surprising if voters who read the latest report of California’s High-Speed Rail Authority feel more than a little bit bait-and-switched.
Let’s look at the ways this report (http://www.cahighspeedrail.ca.gov/library) differs from the way Proposition 1A was hyped in November 2008, when $9.95 billion worth of state bonds for high-speed rail passed by a narrow 52-48 percent margin.
Even then, the bonds were expected to cover less than one-fourth of the cost of this system, which aims by 2035 to carry more than 120,000 riders per day at speeds topping 200 mph. The rest of the money is to come from federal funds, private investors and possible revenue bonds that would be paid off with money from fares.
Less than 18 months after voters approved the high-speed rail system, it’s tentatively planned to run from San Diego to Los Angeles to San Francisco via Pacheco Pass and San Jose, with an eventual spur line to Sacramento and stops in places as disparate as Anaheim, the Inland Empire east of Los Angeles, the Antelope Valley and Bakersfield.
Most of that was envisioned in the proposition voters approved. But the latest fare forecast was not. As presented in 2008, fares were to run about $55 one-way between Los Angeles and San Francisco, designed to be competitive with airfares that now often hover just under $60, even though cheaper ones can occasionally be found.
But the new plan calls for a one-way charge of $105, about 83 percent of the $125 the rail authority predicts airfares will run in 2035. That near-doubling of prospective fares would reduce expected ridership by almost one-third.
In short, as much fun as high-speed trains are to ride, they would probably never be affordable for vast numbers of Californians.
Meanwhile, no change is anticipated in the $647 million annual cost of repaying interest and principal on the bonds. This money that will be paid not just by riders and residents of areas the project might serve, but also by nonriders and residents of the vast portions of California who would have to travel as much as several hundred miles just to glimpse a high-speed train zip past.
From the moment the first of the bonds are issued, repaying them will become a higher priority for the next 30 years than any state program except public schools.
And then there are the environmental questions. Cities like Menlo Park and Atherton are already fighting a plan for an above-ground line dividing their cities along the route between San Jose and San Francisco, where 31,000 riders daily are expected to enjoy commute times of 31 minutes or less.
At the time of the vote, the route was known; not the notion of a 15-foot divider splitting many cities on the San Francisco Peninsula. The need to widen existing rail rights of way, spawning likely eminent domain takeovers of an as-yet-unknown number of homes, was also not advertised.
Anyone who’s ridden the high-speed trains of France, Spain, Belgium, England and Japan knows how comfortable and convenient and enjoyable they can be.
But given the revised fare structure and accompanying ridership estimates, it’s fair to wonder whether they should be partially funded in California by tax money from millions of people who may never ride them.
Another question is whether all this is worth it in order to get the flashy transport system that would result and the approximately 600,000 high-paid new jobs the new report says bullet trains would create.
Those issues will hang over this plan from now until the system actually opens. All of which means it might be wise for the Legislature, which put last year’s Proposition 1A on the ballot, to submit the plan revisions to another statewide vote.
That’s never before been done with any bond issue. Once passed, every bond approved by California voters has eventually been sold, one reason the state (not counting local governments) now has a total bond debt of $89 billion and makes yearly debt payments of about $10 billion.
There’s no question in anyone’s mind that having a high-speed rail system would be good for California, taking traffic off freeways, offering a spectacular new tourist attraction and speeding travel for millions of riders yearly.
The question is whether Californians feel the system now planned is the one they voted to pay for and whether they still believe it’s worthwhile after two years of budget problems like no American state has ever endured.
The only way to answer that fairly is to stage another vote. But legislators usually frown on re-dos, so don’t hold your breath waiting for one.
— Thomas D. Elias of Santa Monica is and author and columnist. E-mail him at tdelias@aol.com.Article 2
High-Speed Rail Approaches StationJR Tokai looking for big bullet-train deals in U.S. | The Japan Times Online
Japanese Firm Pushes Bullet Train as U.S. Prepares to Announce $8 Billion in Stimulus Grants
By MARIKO SANCHANTA
TOKYO—The iconic needle-nosed Japanese "bullet train" could speed through the swampy marshlands of central Florida if Yoshiyuki Kasai, the chairman of Central Japan Railway Co., gets his way.
Mr. Kasai on Monday announced efforts to bring the shinkansen, Japan's bullet train, to the U.S. JR Central's push to enter the U.S. comes as Washington prepares to announce how $8 billion in federal stimulus money set aside for high-speed passenger-train service is carved up.
Central Japan Railway hopes to sell its shinkansen train, seen Monday in Tokyo, for a high-speed rail project proposed in Florida.
JR Central is up against some tough competition, however. Dozens of international companies, including Germany's Siemens AG, Canada's Bombardier Inc., France's Alstom SA and General Electric Co. and Lockheed Martin Corp. of the U.S. all are clamoring for a piece of the pie, which is meant in part to create U.S. jobs. The Obama administration is expected to announce as early as this week what projects will receive stimulus funds.
The $8 billion "is oversubscribed by a factor of eight to one," said Richard Lawless, chief executive of U.S.-Japan High Speed Rail, a consulting company JR Central created to market the bullet train. "Of all the corridors we looked at, the one that looks the most promising and immediate is Florida."
The proposed Florida high-speed rail would cost a total of $3.5 billion to construct, including rolling stock, JR Central said.
Congress attached "Buy America" provisions to the stimulus spending aimed at favoring U.S. firms. But JR Central has structured its package in the hopes of meeting those provisions. Officials from U.S.-Japan Maglev, another JR Central consulting company, said they would ask Florida companies to construct the infrastructure for the train, including the signals and track. Part of the rolling stock, or cars, would be built in the U.S. by U.S. companies.
JR Central is marketing two types of high-speed technology: the shinkansen, which travels as fast as 330 kilometers per hour; and the magnetic-levitation, or maglev, train, which can run up to 581 kph , but is more expensive and in only limited use so far.
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JR Central has hired two executives with defense experience to head its two Washington consulting firms, which will lobby on Capitol Hill on behalf of the Japanese rail group. Mr. Lawless worked at the Central Intelligence Agency for 15 years and was deputy undersecretary of defense for Asian and Pacific affairs under President George W. Bush from 2002-2007.
Torkel Patterson, the president of U.S.-Japan Maglev, worked at the National Security Council and was president of U.S. defense contractor Raytheon International Inc.
The Japanese rail system is renowned for its efficiency, speed, punctuality—trains arrive to the minute—and its impeccable, white-gloved conductors who bow to passengers as they board and depart trains.
Until now, there hasn't been a huge push to market the shinkansen abroad. But faced with a declining population and recent reductions in highway tolls during the holidays, which encourage people to drive during heavy travel periods, JR Central wants to expand abroad.
JR Central is one of six former state-owned railed companies that were privatized in 1987. It operates the bustling service between Tokyo and Osaka, which accounts for 80% of JR Central's revenue. But its profit has declined recently, to 126 billion yen for the fiscal year ended March 31 from 159.7 billion yen in fiscal 2008. Profit is expected to fall slightly this year and drop to 85 billion yen for fiscal 2011.
"We have to expand our manufacturing industry," Mr. Kasai said at a news conference Monday.
Mr. Kasai, who is seen in Japan as an outspoken nationalist, is behind the drive to expand overseas. He was appointed in 2006 by then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to a panel aimed to increase the teaching of patriotism in schools, a taboo since World War II.
Mr. Kasai, 69 years old, has described his vision for exporting high-speed rail in political, as much as business, terms. In the past he has expressed concern about exporting, and possibly losing, Japanese technology to China even though it is a fast-growing market. The decision to expand in the U.S. first reflects his view that "bullet-train diplomacy" could help foster broader ties between the two countries.
JR Central hopes to introduce its N700-I Bullet shinkansen in Florida. The train could also be used for travel between Las Vegas and Los Angeles or in Texas and the Midwest, though those routes seem further down the line.
Even more ambitious than the shinkansen is JR Central's plans to lobby for its maglev train in the U.S. JR Central's maglev train is the culmination of years of research and development but no commuter maglev line exists in Japan because of prohibitive costs. Nevertheless, JR Central is pushing the maglev train in such corridors such as Baltimore-Washington and Atlanta to Chattanooga, Tenn.
JR Central's maglev test line in Japan can run at 581 kph. The technology behind it is enormously expensive, however, and JR Central has already spent more than $1 billion developing it.
Maglev trains use powerful magnets that allow the train to skim along its guideway without touching it, reducing friction. JR Central's trains float 10 centimeters above the guideway but need supercooled, superconducting magnets to generate lift. The train still uses wheels because it lifts clear of the guideway only after picking up speed.
Rail-industry observers doubt the commercial viability of maglev technology, given the exorbitant cost of building a track. Apart from a 32-kilometer high-speed line between Shanghai's Pudong airport and its financial district, the only maglev in commercial operation anywhere is the 8.9 kilometer Linimo line opened last year near Nagoya, that reaches only 100 kph because its route is so short.
"For far too long, the U.S. has neglected our passenger-rail system," said Mr. Patterson, of U.S.-Japan Maglev. "Now finally we are bringing it into the twenty-first century."
Write to Mariko Sanchanta at mariko.sanchanta@wsj.comArticle 3
Tuesday, Jan. 26, 2010
JR Tokai looking for big bullet-train deals in U.S.
By KAZUAKI NAGATA
Staff writer
Central Japan Railway Co. (JR Tokai) said Monday it is teaming up with U.S. companies to promote its N700-I bullet trains and maglev transportation system in U.S. states, targeting such corridors as the Tampa-Orlando-Miami route in Florida.
"One of the reasons why we're putting special focus on the U.S. is because it's a region that we think has the best potential to develop Japan's high-speed railway system," JR Tokai Chairman Yoshiyuki Kasai said at a news conference in Tokyo with the railway's partners.
Kasai said that unlike European train systems, which value interoperability with existing trains, Japan's bullet trains run on separate tracks.
Because almost all U.S. trains carry freight rather than people, there is a great chance of developing independent railway systems, Kasai said.
He also said the company will team up with U.S.-Japan High-Speed Rail and U.S.-Japan Maglev, which are both Washington-based companies founded in 2009, to actively promote the system.
They said they have already selected some target corridors, such as Tampa-Orlando-Miami and Las Vegas-Los Angeles, as well as Texas and the Midwest areas.
Each project could take about two to eight years, said Richard Lawless, CEO of U.S.-Japan High-Speed Rail. He said the Florida project is likely to move quickly, as the state is eager to develop the system.
The momentum for high-speed rail development appears to be growing with the Obama administration expected to announce soon how it will distribute $8 billion for high-speed rail development.
"It truly represents what we think is the beginning of a revolution in American transportation," Lawless said.
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