Article 1
Is another high-speed rail vote needed? - Press-Telegram
Is another high-speed rail vote needed?
It would not be surprising if voters who read the latest report of California's High Speed Rail Authority feel bait-and-switched.
By Thomas Elias
Posted: 01/23/2010 08:39:19 PM PST
It would not be surprising if voters who read the latest report of California's High Speed Rail Authority feel more than a little bit bait-and-switched.
Let's look at the ways this report differs from the way Proposition 1A was hyped in November 2008, when $9.95 billion worth of state bonds for high speed rail passed by a narrow 52-48 percent margin.
Even then, the bonds were expected to cover less than one-fourth of the cost of this system, which aims by 2035 to carry more than 120,000 riders per day at speeds topping 200 mph. The rest of the money is to come from federal funds, private investors and possible revenue bonds that would be paid off with money from fares.
Less than 18 months after voters approved the high speed rail system, it's tentatively planned to run from San Diego to Los Angeles to San Francisco via Pacheco Pass and San Jose, with an eventual spur line to Sacramento and stops in places as disparate as Anaheim, the Inland Empire east of Los Angeles, the Antelope Valley and Bakersfield.
Higher fares, fewer riders
Most of that was envisioned in the proposition voters approved. But the latest fare forecast was not. As presented in 2008, fares were to run about $55 one-way between Los Angeles and San Francisco, designed to be competitive with airfares that now often hover just under $60, even though cheaper ones can occasionally be found.
But the new plan calls for a one-way charge of $105, about 83 percent of the $125 the rail authority predicts airfares will run in 2035. That near-doubling of prospective fares would reduce expected ridership by almost one-third. In short, as much fun as high speed trains are to ride, they would probably never be affordable for vast numbers of Californians.
Meanwhile, no change is anticipated in the $647 million annual cost of repaying interest and principal on the bonds. That money that will be paid not just by riders and residents of areas the project might serve, but also by non-riders and residents of the vast portions of California who would have to travel as much as several hundred miles just to glimpse a high-speed train zip past. From the moment the first of the bonds are issued, repaying them will become a higher priority for the next 30 years than any state program except public schools.
And then there are the environmental questions. Cities like Menlo Park and Atherton are already fighting a plan for an above-ground line dividing their cities along the route between San Jose and San Francisco, where 31,000 riders daily are expected to enjoy commute times of 31 minutes or less. At the time of the vote, the route was known; not the notion of a 15-foot divider splitting many cities on the San Francisco Peninsula. The need to widen existing rail rights of way, spawning likely eminent domain takeovers of an as-yet-unknown number of homes, was also not advertised.
Anyone who's ridden the high speed trains of France, Spain, Belgium, England and Japan knows how comfortable and convenient and enjoyable they can be. But given the revised fare structure and accompanying ridership estimates, it's fair to wonder whether they should be partially funded in California by tax money from millions of people who may never ride them.
Another question is whether all this is worth it in order to get the flashy transport system that would result and the approximately 600,000 high-paid new jobs the new report says bullet trains would create. Those issues will hang over this plan from now until the system actually opens.
Give voters a second chance
All of which means it might be wise for the Legislature, which put last year's Proposition 1A on the ballot, to submit the plan revisions to another statewide vote.
That's never before been done with any bond issue. Once passed, every bond approved by California voters has eventually been sold, one reason the state (not counting local governments) now has a total bond debt of $89 billion and makes yearly debt payments of about $10 billion.
There's no question in anyone's mind that having high speed rail would be good for California, taking traffic off freeways, offering a spectacular new tourist attraction and speeding travel for millions of riders yearly.
The question is whether Californians feel the system now planned is the one they voted to pay for and whether they still believe it's worthwhile after two years of budget problems like no American state has ever endured.
The only way to answer that fairly is to stage another vote. But legislators usually frown on re-dos, so don't hold your breath waiting for one.
Thomas D. Elias is a syndicated columnist who covers California issues. For more columns, visit California Focus.
Article 2
Link: Dan Walters: California high-speed rail project's flaws publicized - Opinion - SanLuisObispo.comOpinion
Sunday, Jan. 24, 2010
Dan Walters: California high-speed rail project's flaws publicized
By By Dan Walters | dwalters@sacbee.com
The
first episode of a new network television series, "Human Target," is
set aboard the maiden run of a high-speed train from San Francisco to
Los Angeles. The story involves a plot to kill its designer, financial
chicanery by its contractor, and a fatal flaw in its braking system.
The show concludes with the runaway train demolishing itself, which could be an omen.
By
happenstance, the episode premiered last week just before state
senators delved into the real – or perhaps fictional – California
high-speed rail project.
Call The Bee's Dan Walters, (916) 321-1195. Back columns, www.sacbee.com/walters.
They
examined a report from the Legislature's budget office that's highly
critical of the High-Speed Rail Authority's much-touted business plan
and a legislative staff report that echoes the criticism and adds grave
doubts of its own.
The twin reports provide potent ammunition
for project critics, especially those from the San Francisco Peninsula
who oppose running 200-mile-per-hour trains through their bucolic,
affluent neighborhoods.
Peninsula residents, many of them
experienced managers and financial analysts, lined up to denounce the
business plan's shaky – even outlandish – assumptions about ridership,
fares, construction costs and operational margins.
Curt Pringle,
the Anaheim mayor who chairs the rail authority, found himself on the
defensive as senators used the staff reports to sharply question
aspects of the project, especially its suppositions and what
legislative budget analyst Eric Thornson said is the agency's "wholly
inadequate" consideration of downside financial risks.
Sen. Alan
Lowenthal, D-Long Beach, pressed Pringle on the assumption that the
federal government would pick up half the system's $40 billion
projected cost. "Is that a wish?" Lowenthal asked. "It's a hope,"
Pringle replied.
Even the pro-high-speed-rail California Rail
Foundation found the project lacking, with its representative telling
senators, "We can't believe any of the numbers presented in the
business plan."
At one point in the "Human Target" episode, its
hero, a personal bodyguard named Christopher Chance, is told that the
train cost $80 billion and complains about his taxes paying for it.
One
suspects that the TV show's $80 billion is more realistic than the $40
billion projected by the rail authority, given the immense delays and
cost overruns on other major public works projects in California, such
as the still-unfinished overhaul of the Bay Bridge or any number of
half-baked state government computer projects.
The gaping holes
in the business plan must be filled with hard facts and reliable
numbers – if they can be filled – before we begin selling and spending
the $9.95 billion in state bonds.
It would be better to derail
now rather than plunge California into a bottomless money pit that
would once again make it a global laughingstock.
Article 3
Link: UPDATE 2-JR Tokai targets Florida bullet train deal | Reuters
UPDATE 2-JR Tokai targets Florida bullet train deal
Mon Jan 25, 2010 6:14am EST
By Nobuhiro Kubo,
TOKYO, Jan 25 (Reuters) - Central Japan Railway Co (JR Tokai) (9022.T) will join rivals in competing to develop a high-speed railway line in the U.S. state of Florida, as the former state-owned firm looks to sell its super-fast train systems overseas.
A consulting firm hired by the company said a railway line connecting Tampa, Orlando and Miami in Florida was one of the most promising targets for its Shinkansen bullet trains as the route would be exclusively used by high-speed trains.
"I expect competition for the contract to be fierce in Florida. We will be the last to join the bidding," JR Tokai's Chairman Yoshiyuki Kasai told a news conference. "But I believe our Japanese system will be the most suitable for the line."
Kasai did not say which other firms were competing for deal, although JR Tokai's global rivals include Canada's Bombardier (BBDb.TO), Germany's Siemens (SIEGn.DE) and France's Alstom (ALSO.PA).
U.S.-Japan High-Speed Rail, the consulting firm working for JR Tokai, also said that lines between Las Vegas and Los Angeles could be candidates for the company's products.
The world's $165 billion rail market is expected to grow by 2.0-2.5 percent a year until 2016, according to European Rail Industry trade group UNIFE.
The United States' railway market is typically viewed as one of the most promising as President Barack Obama's economic stimulus package includes an $8 billion provision for high-speed trains.
GOOD SAFETY RECORD
"The company's European rivals are competitive and have more experience in selling railway technology overseas," said Ryouta Himeno, transport analyst at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities. "But the good reputation of JR Tokai's bullet trains in terms of safety and punctuality should work to their advantage."
JR Tokai operates Shinkansen bullet trains between Tokyo and Osaka, one of six regional railway operators that were set up after Japan's national railway was privatised in 1987. Shinkansen trains have not suffered any fatal accidents since they started operating in 1964.
The railway company is also keen to sell its know-how on so-called maglev trains, which levitate and are propelled forward by magnetic force. It has already put in motion a 5 trillion yen project to build a maglev railway connecting Tokyo and Nagoya.
JR Tokai said it sees lines between Baltimore and Washington, as well as from Chattanooga to Atlanta as potential candidates for this technology, which allows trains to travel at 500 kilometres per hour, nearly twice as fast as normal Shinkansen.
Shares of JR Tokai, which replaced Japan Airlines Corp (9205.T) on the Nikkei Average after JAL last week filed for bankruptcy, rose 0.9 percent, while the the Nikkei Average was down 0.7 percent. (Reporting by Nobuhiro Kubo, Editing by Joseph Radford)
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