A bullet train to nowhere?

SACRAMENTO
November 29, 2011 10:03pm

• New analysis questions if it will ever be built

• ‘The draft business plan … portrays the project more favorably than may be warranted’

Source: http://www.centralvalleybusinesstimes.com/stories/001/?ID=19883

The initial segment of the proposed California high-speed passenger train system – from south of Merced to north of Bakersfield in the Central Valley – may be the only part of the vaunted system that’s ever built, warns a new report from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office.

The report says that the flow of federal funds has been stopped by Congress and that “it appears doubtful that substantial additional federal support will be forthcoming anytime soon.”

This makes it “increasingly likely” that the Central Valley segment – too short for high-speed trains – “may be all that is ever built,” the report says.

There remain a number of unanswered technical questions regarding whether the segment may be used to improve the existing San Joaquin Amtrak service, as suggested in the business plan, the report says.

The LAO report also questions fundamentals of the recently released draft business plan.

“Our preliminary review of the economic analysis in the draft business plan is that it may be incomplete and imbalanced, and therefore portrays the project more favorably than may be warranted. For example, the plan does not estimate economic loses from negative impacts to business from right-of-way acquisition and rail construction activities or from increases in urban traffic congestion around train stations,” it says.

It also faults another aspect of the high-speed rail’s draft business plan – how many people would ride the trains and how the cost of the system might compare with the costs of more highway and airport capacity.

“The draft business plan compares the estimated $99 billion to $118 billion cost of constructing high-speed rail with an estimated $170 billion cost of adding equivalent capacity to airports and highways. This comparison is very problematic because $170 billion is not what the state would otherwise spend to address the growth in inter-city transportation demand. The HSRA (High-Speed Rail Authority) estimates that the high-speed train system would have the capacity to carry 116 million passengers per year but their highest forecasted ridership is significantly less than that amount—44 million rides per year (roughly 40 percent less than capacity),” the report says.

The report has been presented to the California Assembly Transportation Committee.