Musing on Trends and Challenges of Increased Transit Use (Source: la.streetsblog.org)

Link: http://la.streetsblog.org/2010/06/02/musing-on-trends-and-challenges-of-increased-transit-use/

Will our buses and rail really ever get people out of their cars? 

Musing on Trends and Challenges of Increased Transit Use

by Damien Newton on June 2, 2010

Metro Rapid map.  Photo: RJM Connel/Flickr

David Lazarus, in one of his recent L.A. Times columns on public transit, off-handly laments neglect of the "long-term promotion of public transportation as a practical alternative to traveling by car".

Is that what transit in Southern California in the modern age has had as its goal? My long held suspicion is that transit as an alternative to the automobile is mostly an empty slogan that officials speak of but that as a practical matter receives little attention beyond lip service. And the great danger is trends may actually be leading us toward having transit use widen while officials and others aren't preparing for the many challenges this presents.

Our present public transit system is structured to meet two markets: peak hour commuters and the transit-dependent population (mostly made up of folks of modest means, seniors, the disabled and youth). Over decades service and funding structures have been built up predicated on that being the population it serves.

With the emergence of Metro Rapid and the growing grid of Metro Rail services the demographic that transit draws is widening. Which actually presents challenges, both political and practical.

A peek at what we may be facing is the huge spike in transit use that occurred when gasoline bolted past $4 a gallon in 2008 -- agencies struggled to meet the demand, often bringing out of mothballs old buses that had historically been part of a reserve fleet.

Because nearly all purchases of transit equipment by public agencies involve federal capital funding, rather stringent "buy america" provisions constrain the universe of manufactures that can bid. It can often be upwards of 24 months from when an order is made before deliver occurs, given the limited capacity to manufacture buses to serve the American market. Also most urban areas are extremely difficult to facilitate expansion of bus repair and storage facilities. Some of this is NIMBYism (folks don't want a bus yard in their neighborhood) plus in many cases plots of land large enough for a bus yard are few and far between (or entail the long difficult process of building on a brownfield). While many may think a lot more use of transit would be a good thing the transit providers right are now are nowhere near ready to handle it.

Then one tries to contemplate where the funding would come from to have transit as the main mode of mobility for a significant portion of the urban population. I think that takes us to about the limits of any possible prognostication being possible. Perhaps we need a more honest and engaged dialogue on these issues. I certainly think we are falling far short of that at the moment. The American landscape is evolving and I fear we are not remotely preparing for what it will need to fulfill its ultimate aim of better cities and better lifes for the people therein. Transit that is good enough won't cut it.